Monday, October 9, 2017

Box Office Week: Blade Runner 2049 opens at #1 to a very disappointing $31.5M on a budget of $150M. The Mountain Between Us opens at #2 to an okay $10.1M and My Little Pony: The Movie opens to an underwhelming #4 spot with $8.8M. Also, IT becomes the first horror film ever to pass $300M domestic.

Rank Title Domestic Gross (Weekend) Worldwide Gross (Cume) Week #
1 Blade Runner 2049 $31,525,000 $81,725,000 1
2 The Mountain Between Us $10,100,000 $13,700,000 1
3 IT $9,655,000 $603,733,478 5
4 My Little Pony: The Movie $8,800,000 $12,600,000 1
5 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $8,100,000 $253,578,659 3

Notable Box Office Stories:

  • Sadly once again it seems that just because you have the reviews and the money to back up a risky film a major studio really believes in doesn't mean the audience will give a damn, as Blade Runner 2049 just couldn't translate early hype into returns. The film came in far under expectations and pre-release tracking opening at #1 with $31.5M. Going in to the weekend things looked really good for the film. Most expected this film to take some licks being a big budget, 2hr 45m sequel to a film that opened in 1982 to $6M at #2 (roughly around $15M today), but it had fantastic tracking numbers and looked to be a repeat of another WB produced, incredibly well reviewed long in the works sequel, Mad Max: Fury Road which opened to $45M. But as each day went on the numbers dwindled more and more. Part of the issue is the demographics. The audience was an astonishing 72% male and over 63% were over the age of 35. Any attempt to get young women in to the cinema by casting Ryan Gosling just did not work here. Now that actually leads in to two things that could save the film.

  • Blade Runner 2049 (cont.) The first is shockingly the film scored an A- on Cinemascore, which is very surprising for a fairly heady and slowly paced film with limited action sequences. That along with the demographic suggests a good possible longtail for the film, as older men tend to not care so much for seeing a film on opening weekend. Let's not forget Arrival from the same director of BR49 (Denis Villeneuve) which last year opened low and rode a wave of incredibly positive reviews to a fantastic multiplier. The other good news is that overseas the film is performing a little better (Sony is handling international distribution as a co-financier of the film), opening in 63 markets with $50.2M. The biggest was the UK where it opened above Fury Road with $8M. However if we look at another long sci-fi film with good reviews that performed insanely well overseas, Interstellar, we see where it made most of its money was in two places: China and South Korea. Both of these regions have yet to see a release of BR49 yet with Sony just securing a Chinese release on November 10th and a South Korean release on October 12th. Interstellar made over $120M in China so there's a lot of potential money on the table to help make BR49 a safer bet. Even if these safety nets fail though I wouldn't worry too much. Denis is still the golden child of the industry right now and BR49 is guaranteed to be a major Oscar player now, so WB has once again proven it is the premiere place to funds films like BR49 and Fury Road and Interstellar; big expensive gambles that aren't expected to destroy at the box office but are going to be remembered a lot longer than cheaper films that made them more money.

  • While only older men said "yes I want to see Ryan Gosling look pensive over very loud Zimmer music" it seems only younger women said "yes I want to see Idris Elba and Kate Winslet bang on a mountain" as The Mountain Between Us opened at #2 to a solid $10.1M. As I joked the demographic for TMBU was the exact opposite of BR49 (really into initialism today) with 58% of the demographic female and a staggering 81% under the age of 25. It will be an interesting film to watch mostly because there really aren't than many interracial romance movies out there, not mention ones that are also survival films to boot. What also makes the demo surprising is Winslet and Elba are both in their 40s, and while undeniably attractive they don't exactly seem the type to cause younger crowds to rush out to see them. TMBU feels like the kind of movie that should appeal to an older female audience so it must be either the unique genre elements or the interracial romance angle that appeals to a younger crowd. The film scored a great A- on Cinemascore so it should held well but opening at $10M doesn't really give it a lot of room to pass its $35M budget. With Oscar plays on the horizon TMBU probably will drop off but it just might reach its core audience with good word of mouth.

  • It seems this very long in production film was perhaps a little too delayed as My Little Pony: The Movie couldn't quite translate the success of the show into box office as it opened at #4 to a weak $8.8M. Nothing about the demos I'm going to say right now should surprise you as the film played to an audience that was 59% female and 41% male, with 51% of the total audience over the age of 25. Part of the issue is that the show is just not in its height right now, with the extreme love and brony subculture peaking probably 4 or 5 years ago. There also likely is the issue of parents not wanting to take their kids, like due to it being done in the same animation style as the TV show they get via streaming services at home and possibly not wanting to be confronted with the brony subculture irl. Ultimately while the film is a disappointment, it's not a big one for Hasbro who are still selling mountains of merchandise. Much like Cars 3 this is a series where the merch is the main player, not the TV show or films. Unlike Cars 3 the likely budget (which is unreported) is expected to be extremely low and the film will probably do just fine in the home video market.

Films Reddit Wants to Follow

This is a segment where we keep a weekly tally of currently showing films that aren't in the Top 5 that fellow redditors want updates on. If you'd like me to add a film to this chart, make a comment in this thread.

Title Domestic Gross (Cume) Worldwide Gross (Cume) Budget Week #
Wonder Woman $412,313,943 $821,113,943 $149M 19
Cars 3 $152,608,499 $374,108,499 $175M 17
Baby Driver $107,719,064 $225,929,521 $34M 15
Spider-man: Homecoming $332,853,104 $877,580,061 $175M 14
Dunkirk $187,037,289 $520,737,289 $100M 12
Wolf Warrior 2 $2,721,034 $870,325,373 $30M 10

Notable Film Closings

Title Domestic Gross Worldwide Gross Budget
Atomic Blonde $51,573,925 $95,673,925 $30M
Birth of the Dragon $6,901,965 $6,967,631 $31M

As always /r/boxoffice is a great place to share links and other conversations about box office news.

Also you can see the archive of all Box Office Week posts at /r/moviesboxoffice.



Submitted October 09, 2017 at 08:31AM by mi-16evil http://ift.tt/2z9nTvY

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